Why the Redskins will win the Super Bowl

The Washington Redskins have everything a team could want when looking for a Super Bowl contender. The most important thing a winning team needs is a winning quarterback who can put up good stats. And Redskins have just that in Colt McCoy. If you take Colt McCoy’s per attempt numbers and put them over the course of season Colt McCoy stats make him look like the MVP contender he is. If he started all 16 games he was on pace for 4518 yards 17 passing touchdowns only 12 picks 5 rushing touchdowns and an NFL best 71.1 completion (record) percentage. Now it’s one thing if you’re quarterback puts up stats but loses but a player a whole new kind of special if he can put W’s in the standings. Colt McCoy is proven winner as shown by his college career. McCoy is the winningest quarterback in NCAA history (Kellen Moore went to Boise State so he doesn’t count.) Plus last season he accounted for half the teams wins despite only starting a quarter of the team’s games. If my math is correct, Colt McCoy would have won 32 games if he played in all 16.  Colt McCoy has proven to be an elite player and a winner and will spearhead this team to a Super Bowl.
Even a great quarterback like Colt McCoy can’t win a Super Bowl by himself so it’s very convenient that McCoy has some amazing offensive weapons and an improved offensive line. Alfred Morris is in line to have a great season with Colt McCoy demanding defense’s attention. And he’s bound improve his efficiency because the Redskins drafted the best lineman in the draft Brandon Schreff. Brandon Schreff will join Trent Williams to form one of the best tackle duos in the NFL. In the middle the team is led by former BGSU Falcon (and first NFL player I got an autograph from) and two subpar guards who don’t matter because they can just run around them. McCoy will also have a lot of receiving weapons like the electric DeSean Jackson, the consistent Pierre Garcon, and the former Florida Tight End who didn’t kill anybody, Jordan Reed.  This dynamic offense should be a threat to score 40 or more points every single game.

Defensively the Redskins have lots of quality players. They have a sturdy defensive line led by free agent pickup Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton and the strongest player in the NFL Stephen Paea. These two along with Ricky Jean Francois, Jason Hatcher and Chris Baker will make sure teams will have trouble running the ball. I expect teams to average negative rushing yards a game due this stout group. The Reskins have loads of pass rushers at linebacker in Ryan Kerrigan, Trent Murphy, and rookie Preston Smith to go along with inside linebackers Riley Perry Jr. and Keenan Robinson. The secondary sucks though. Deangelo Hall has less working ankles than a snake, David Amerson sucks, and everyone else is a mediocre at best. This is a genius strategy by the Redskins. Deliberately setting one position as a weakness will make opponents think they have a chance and sleep on this team. But no, once they come in cocky the other good players on the team will destroy them. Plus, they say they secondary is the defenses last line of defense, but you don’t need a last line of defense when you’re first two lines of defense are the best in the world. I mean the Redskins secondary matters so little they could just sit down and drink coffee during plays and the team’s defense will still dominate.

Final Prediction: 19-0. The Redskins offense explodes and averages 60 points a game. The defense will allow a lot of points because Roger Goodell will force the Redskin’s to only play 9 guys on defense just to give to opponents a chance, even though it won’t work. Colt McCoy wins the MVP after throwing for 5000 yards and 40 touchdowns. This team will go down as one of the greatest teams of all time.

This piece of satire was written because I lost a bet with my buddy Trevor on who would win the first preseason game between my Browns and his Redskins.

Fantasy Football Mock Draft

On August 12th I did a fantasy football mock draft with Walter Cherepinsky of WalterFootball and some of his Twitter followers. I had a blast and feel my team would compete in this league. (Draft charts are from WalterFootball.com plus you can read his opinion on this draft right here.)

FF 1-5

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rounds 1-2

My Picks:  In the first round I drafted LeSean McCoy 2 picks before his Average Draft Position (ADP). It was between him and Matt Forte but I decided to take McCoy because he has a higher upside.  Next I took Rob Gronkowski. I feel Gronk is a bit undervalued here, plus I feel that Gronk gives me a huge edge over every other team at the TE position.

Best Picks: I really like how WalterFootball was able to grab Jeremy Hill and Odell, no one did better with their 1st two picks. Some other good picks were Matt Forte who only falls to 2.04 4% of the time, Calvin Johnson, and Andrew Luck.

Worst Picks: I really don’t like CJ Anderson. I feel that any RB without a full productive season and a new offense is a huge risk. I also believe that team Tiny Sauce should have taken Randall Cobb instead of Alshon Jeffery.

Rounds 3-4

My Picks: I was praying Brandin Cooks  would fall to me but the auto drafted team in front of me nabbed him. Instead I got DeAndre Hopkins who did well last year despite poor QB play, and now he won’t have to compete with Andre Johnson for targets. Plus Arian Foster will be hurt for awhile, giving Hopkins more opportunities. In the fourth round I didn’t like any of the RBs so I took another WR2 with great upside in Jordan Matthews.

Best Picks: I really like how Tiny Sauce was able to grab Lamar Miller. Gives him the best set of RBs in the league. Kelvin Benjamin is a steal at 4:06 and he gives Better Unborn the best group of WRs in the league.

Worst Picks- I’m pretty sure team 4 was on auto-pick or something because it is just silly for 1 team to draft a QB and 2 of his WRs in the first 4 rounds. The LaGarrette Blount pick was a huge reach as there was a good chance he’d be available 22 picks later when Walt drafts again. Like Walt, I really don’t like the Martavis Bryant pick. He isn’t even listed as a starting WR and the Steelers face a really tough schedule this year. Bryant will be a huge bust at that spot. Also not a huge fan of Kelce, I feel that if you don’t take Gronk or Graham its best to wait until the later rounds because I’m not anticipating much difference between Kelce and say Jason Witten in non-PPR leagues.

 

ff 5-8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

5-6

My Picks: Sheldon’s Bentley stole my pick again nabbing Doug Martin. Instead I selected Andre Ellington more than a round later than average. I’m not a big fan of Ellington this year but his value and my need at RB made it an easy pick. In the 6th round I grabbed Vincent Jackson who is one of my favorite mid round receivers.

Best Picks: I was considering picking Drew Brees with my 5th round pick so I have to give team 11 props fro drafting him. Team 11 also got real value taking Ameer Abdullah next round.

Worst Picks: Ben Roethlisberger is very overrated this year so Blash taking him feels like a huge mistake. Same with Jimbob who drafted Cam Newton 1 and half rounds before average. Arian Foster also feels like a reach. I don’t feel any player who’s likely to miss half the season deserves a pick before the 8th round. The Brandon Marshall was a steal according ADP but I highly doubt he will have any type of success in the Jets offense.

7-8

My Picks: I wanted to draft Charles Johnson, but the computer gave me Coleman instead. It’s a shame since I really don’t like Coleman because I question his ability to run in a zone scheme. Last year I was hyping up Charles Johnson as a super sleeper for the Browns and my prediction came true, albeit with the Vikings. Now I get a decent WR 4 with some potential if the Vikings can overcome their tough schedule. (From here on out I drafted as if Charles Johnson was my pick.) In the eighth round I took Ryan Mathews. I am really excited because odds are Murray will get hurt at some point during the season, and Ryan Mathews excels at running out of the shotgun formation that the Eagles love to use.

Best Picks: Nothing too great, but the Gio Bernard, Alfred Blue, and Roddy White were good picks.

Worst Picks: Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady were quite reaches but they pale in comparison for the reach of Eli Manning. On average Eli Manning is the 11th QB taken but Better Unborn took him ahead of a guy like Matt Ryan who’s usually taken 2 rounds earlier. Poor move on his part.

ff9-12

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

9-12

My Picks: I nabbed a high upside WR in Davante Adams in the ninth round. I’m really hoping he can do better than last years trendy Packer WR pick, Jarrett Boykin. Then I finally took a QB in Ryan Tannehill in tenth. I feel waiting was a great strategy and that Tannehill will be a serviceable QB. 11th round I took Brian Quick, mostly because  I knew Walt liked him and because he seems like a good high upside WR5. In the 12th round I drafted Charles Sims. I really like the Bucs this year because of their easy schedule and feel that if anything happened to Doug Martin Sims could step up and be a RB2.

Best Picks: Tony Romo was a great pick in the ninth round. I also thought every pick between my Adams and Tannehill pick were good, especially Anquan Boldin. Jason Witten was an amazing steal in the 11th round. Marques Colston and Terrance Williams were other good picks.

Worst Picks: A lot of people took defenses too soon besides that I feel that Roy Helu, Reggie Bush, and Carson Palmer were poor picks. The worst pick was probably Kevin White but that’s just because he got hurt after the draft.

ff13-15

 

 

 

 

 

13-15

My Picks: The one player I knew I wanted was Jameis Winston and I knew he’d be there at 14 so I just drafted the best kicker in the game. Jameis is one of my favorite picks this year and you can check my QB rankings to find out why. Last round I took Baltimore’s defense. Baltimore’s defense has always been good and I hope they can do well enough, and if not I can just take another defense.

Best Picks: Cameron Artis-Payne, Marvin Jones, Markus Wheaton, and Kenny Stills were all good high upside picks.

Worst Picks: It’s kind of hard to say cause there really aren’t any bad picks this late, but if I had to choose I’d say that Michael Crabtree is a stretch to make any real contributions.

My Team: Starters

QB: Ryan Tannehill

RB1: LeSean McCoy

RB2: Andre Ellington

WR1: DeAndre Hopkins

WR2: Jordan Matthews

WR3: Vincent Jackson

TE: Rob Gronkowski

D/ST: Baltimore

K: Stephen Gostkowski

Bench

QB2: Jameis Winston

RB3: Ryan Mathews

RB4: Charles Sims

WR4: Charles Johnson

WR5: Davante Adams

WR6: Brian Quick

Looking back at my team the one thing I’d change would be taking Tre Mason instead of Charles Johnson. I feel my team is too low on RB depth and really high on WR depth. Besides that I feel like I did a good job on my draft. I got a good RB1 the best TE in the game along with 3 good receivers. I’m a little week at RB2 but most everyone is. Overall I feel that my team has a lot of high upside players and if just a few breakout I will contend for the championship.

Heisman Hopefuls: Front-runners and Breakout Stars to Watch in 2015

The most distinguished award in collegiate athletics is always heavily sought after and the subject of every players dream, to hoist the coveted stiff arming statue.  The Heisman Memorial Trophy’s winner from this season class are:

1.  Ezekiel Elliot- Junior RB 6/1

The Buckeyes stand out tailback showed that all that glitters is gold after a gaudy trio of stellar performances in the inaugural College Football Playoffs.  Elliot flexed his muscle and delivered with 220 yards against Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game, followed up the feat rushing for a Sugar Bowl record against the Crimson Tide and then gashed the Ducks for 246 yards in the National title game.  It is obvious that Elliot seen an increase in workload after the injury to star Quarterback J.T Barrett late in the season.  The Buckeyes leaned on the flashy back to take them to the promise land, and sure enough he was able to deliver.  His ability and unprecedented speed has pro scouts drooling.  It is very difficult for tailbacks to win the award now with the emergence of the dual threat quarterback now in the College Football, I mean Melvin Gordon almost broke Barry Sanders astonishing single season rushing record and came home empty.  So what makes me think Elliot has the tools to become the first tailback to receive the honor since Mark Ingram? His vision and elusiveness is what makes Zeke a premiere pick for the award. He has the patience to wait on a hole to open before exploiting it with break neck speed.  If Zeke runs for over 2,000 yards and 25 tds along with a few hundred receiving yards, it will be hard to turn him away at the podium come late December.

2. Trevone Boykin- Senior QB TCU 7/1

Boykin turned in a fine 2014 campaign, finishing fourth in the Heisman trophy voting.  Now with an FBS high 10 returning offensive starters, it is hard to point to a better equipped candidate in this years phenomenal class.  Boykin showed he was much more than a one trick pony last season by being a dual threat and even seeing involvement in various receiving packages.  Boykin passed for 3901 yards in a pass happy Big 12 Conference last season, but it will be crucial for him to improve upon those numbers if he hopes to take home the hardware this year.  The Horned Frogs will most likely be a top four team when the season begins and the success of the team hinges largely on Boykin’s production.  I expect for Boykin to turn the corner and continue to shred defenses with precision and superior execution. If he follows that blueprint, no one will stand in his path to claim the prize.

  1. J.T. Barrett 25/1 or Cardale Jones 16/1 QBs Ohio State

Whoever Urban Meyer chooses to take the reigns at QB this season will become a Top 5 pick to receive the award.  Both QB’s have proven themselves capable of keeping defenses honest with their running and passing abilities. Barrett started the first 12 games this past season, setting the school record for passing touchdowns in a season (34) until succumbing to a broken ankle against the Buckeye’s arch rival Michigan.  The Buckeyes then moved to their third string quarterback, Cardale Jones who led Ohio State on an illustrious title run. This dynamic Coach Meyer has is nothing short of impressive.  Barrett has proven himself to be a very accurate passer, while completing 65% of his throws.   Jones provides a different facet to the Buckeyes “juggernaut” offense with his unprecedented arm strength.    It will be a very tough decision for Coach Meyer, but whoever starts under center will be on a short leash as Ohio State has learned to live by the mantra “next man up”.

  1. Nick Chubb- Sophomore RB, Georgia 8/1

There was a silver lining after all for the Bulldogs when star tailback Todd Gurley injured his ACL early in the season.   Chubb has seen the bulk of the carries for the team and what he accomplished was nothing short of impressive.  Chubb rushed for over 1500 yards at an astonishing 7.1 yards per carry.  He also showed his versatility as a pass catcher out of the backfield amassing 213 receiving yards.  He has proven his a slippery and elusive back who, once he finds a seam is able to exploit the weakness with his great acceleration and explosiveness. The question remains, can he outperform Ezekiel Elliot while playing in a defensive minded SEC conference.  The road for Chubb to win the prize will be one of the most challenging, as he is still developing as a play-maker for the Bulldog offense.   Chubb definitely has the skill set to dazzle the voters, but perhaps the field this year is too daunting for the budding tailback.

  1. Connor Cook- Senior QB, Michigan State 20/1

Cook may have already cemented himself as one of the greatest Spartan quarterbacks in school history, a school which is not typically mentioned for their prowess on the gridiron.  However, since the Mark Dantonio regime has been in charge, the Spartans have become a perennial frontrunner within the Big Ten and a Rose Bowl victory in 2014 adds to another notch in his belt.  Cook is a prototype quarterback, 6’4” who possesses great poise in the pocket and is able to make strong accurate passes downfield.   Cook has had an impressive array of receivers over the course of his tenure,  including All-Conference wide out, Tony Lippett.  While his completion percentage over the past two seasons has been sub-60%, Cook has been able to improve drastically in the yardage category throwing for just over 3200 yards this past season ( a 500 yard improvement from the 2013 campaign).  He is responsible with the football and rarely turns it over, last year throwing a 3 to 1 ratio of touchdowns to interceptions (24 TDs, 8 INTs).  He is slated to be a high level draft pick who features tremendous upside and should be a joy to watch again this year.

It will surely be an interesting year in College Football, with no shortage of star-studded talent once again gracing the gridiron. All we can do now is wait until September rolls around and watch the magic unfold before our eyes.

-Quentin Ison

(Note: All stats acquired via ESPN.com gambling odds are from Bovada)

Rules Changes that will make Sports Better

The NFL has just announced that they will move the extra point back to the 15 yard line but leave the 2 point try at the 2. This small rule change will increase the number of key choices a coach will have to make and it will most likely make the NFL more entertaining. This got me thinking, what other rules can we tweak or create to make the sports we watch and care about more entertaining.

Football: Football is my favorite sport but that doesn’t mean I don’t have a lot of gripes about the rules and how referees interpret the rules. The first thing I would do is fix pass interference. There is nothing really unreasonable about it according to the rule book, but some refs interpretation of interference is downright awful. For example this was a pass interference call from a Browns game back in 2013.

I’m still butt-hurt about that call 2 years later and I have every right to be. I don’t see how the contact made by Leon McFadden altered his path or restricted his ability to make the catch. This is just one example of growing trend of refs calling tacky pass interference. My plan to fix it is to train the refs to be more lenient on calls and to give coaches the ability to challenge pass interference calls and have the booth look at calls in the last 2 minutes of the game. This may lengthen games a bit, but I feel that the need to get these calls right is a greater priority.

Baseball: Baseball is a difficult game to change because baseball traditionalist often hate it. But change might be necessary for baseball to grow in this new generation. Generally speaking the complaints about baseball is that it is too boring and too slow. The new pace of play changes helped speed up the game a bit  and my idea will continue the trend and add strategy to the great game of baseball. Last year there were 17936 pick-off attempts and only 132 were successful in getting the runner out, good for 0.7% success rate. Pick-off attempts are the most boring play in all of baseball and technically a pitcher can throw as many pick-offs in an at bat as he wants which makes for awful entertainment. My solution is simply to limit the number of unsuccessful pick-off attempts a pitcher has during each inning. I first read about this idea in The New Bill James Historical Abstract and the idea is that the pitcher only has 2 free unsuccessful pick-off attempts per inning. Any unsuccessful pick-off attempts afterward would be considered a ball. This eliminates those long awful innings with ten or more pick-offs and creates some new exciting strategies. Stolen bases will happen more often, which is always a good thing, plus the general excitement that will be in the air when a good base stealer is on after 2 pick-offs. Overall I feel this idea will help speed up the game and increase strategy and excitement.

Soccer: In general Soccer is probably my least favorite sport to watch. But this past year I have watched a lot of soccer because of the World Cup last year (I enjoyed chanting U.S.A. more than anything), and working for the women’s soccer team at Bowling Green State University. While I find soccer at the college level to be decent, the rules and gameplay of the elite leagues can be maddening. The first thing that doesn’t make sense about soccer is extra time. Extra time should be based on how often the game stopped for injuries or substitution but it never does. In fact FIFA doesn’t even show how its referees decide to add stoppage time for any given match. This has led to many studies that have proven that home teams when losing get more time. This is hilariously stupid and could easily lead to shady activity. My solution, stop the clock when someone gets hurt or during substitutions, every other sport does it and I don’t see why soccer shouldn’t.

Second issue with soccer is its flopping. This topic feels strange as I seen 10+ women’s soccer games last year and I can’t recall any real flops. But when I watch 10 minutes of the Premier League and there’s 3 players flopping and whining. The crazy thing is unlike other sports where the ref notices the flop and ignores it soccer refs seem to fall for it every time, even in huge situations. Take for example the Netherlands vs Mexico World Cup game. The Netherlands’ Arjen Robben acted like the sniper who sits in section 408 shot him in the leg and drew the game winning penalty kick. It is just crazy to me to think that a game which values skill and grace would let a game be decided on by acting ability.  First, don’t support flopping. Players will stop flopping if the refs stop calling it. Second, fine and suspend players who flop and give them even less benefit of the doubt on close calls. And third, don’t be afraid to stop the game (and the clock) to make sure you’re making the right call. If you fix this more Americans and people from every country in the world will be entertained by the sport of soccer. (Oh and a less corrupt governing body would be nice as well.) – TheFootPaul

Hockey: There isn’t much wrong with the current rules of the game. While it seems some fans are flustered with the near extinction of the fight and its room in the game, that is not the biggest issue and in no way impacts the integrity of the sport. The main issue is that referees are not allowed to review penalties, chiefly Delay of Game calls to decide whether the puck deflected inadvertently out of play or if it cleared the glass without making contact with anything else before exiting the ice.  The lack of replay was present in the Washington Capitals- New York Rangers playoff series late in Game 6, which was a must win for the Rangers to stave off elimination.  The referees ruled New York’s Dan Girardi guided the puck over the glass without it touching anything before leaving play.  However, looking at the instant replay, it became clear that the puck made contact with the glass which should have resulted in a face-off, and not a penalty.   While it didn’t cost the Rangers the game, it certainly had the potential to have an impact on the game.  Every other sport has embraced the use of replay, isn’t it time hockey use technology to its full potential when deliberating on pivotal calls? – QBall

 

 

 

 

Unpopular Opinion: A.J. Green is Overrated

The consensus around the NFL is that A.J. Green is a top 5 or 6 WR. Talent-wise he very well may be, but in terms of productivity he certainly isn’t. A quick look at his stats shows that he put up 2 great season where he finished in the top 10 in receiving yards and touchdowns after his great rookie year. In 2014 he had a decent year despite missing 4 games and being hampered by a toe injury. But if you look a little deeper you’ll find that A.J. Green isn’t that efficient and it prevents Green from being one of the most valuable receivers in the league.

The first thing I will look is A.J. Green’s catch rate compared to the other receivers on the Bengals. The catch rate is catches/targets, or what was the QBs completion percentage when throwing his way. I have also added deep ball % to account for the fact that it is much easier to have a good catch rate if you don’t go deep very often.

2014

Name                           Catches           Targets          CR%               Deep%

A.J. Green                    69                    116                  59.5%              37.1%

Mohamad Sanu           56                    98                  57.1%              27.6%

2013

A.J. Green                    98                    178                  55.1%              29.8%

Marvin Jones               51                    80                  63.8%              23.8%

Mohamad Sanu           47                    77                   61.0%              23.4%

2012

A.J. Green                    97                    164                  59.1%              36.0%

Andrew Hawkins        51                    80                  63.8%              15.0%

The most interesting thing that pops out at me is Marvin Jones performance in 2013 compared to Green’s. Jones had a much better catch rate and was only targeted deep at a bit lower rate. The other interesting thing about Marvin Jones’ 2013 performance was that he averaged almost a whole yard more  than Green per target. That was only one year, but even though he compares favorably to the his teammates he doesn’t fare as well to the rest of the league. For example I found 10 receivers who had a better catch rate along with a higher deep target percentage. I also found out that A.J. Green finished 25th in yards per target according to advancedfootballanalytics.com by Brian Burke. This shows me that A.J. Green is not as efficient as he needs to be to call himself a top 10 WR.

So after looking A.J. Green’s efficiency I figured that the next measure I would use is WPA and EPA.  WPA and EPA stand for win probability added and expected points added. They give a way for us to translate how much of their performance translates into wins and points. Here we compare A.J Green value and compare it with the number 2 receiver on the team (in 2012 the Bengals didn’t have another receiver to compare with)

2014                           WPA               Rank   EPA                Rank

A.J. Green                 .58                   x*          16.8                 39th

Mohamad Sanu       1.39                 23rd    41.9                 26th

2013

A.J. Green                 1.09                 33rd    20.9               17th

Marvin Jones          .98                    39th    44.5                34th

2014                         WPA/G          Rank   EPA/P            Rank

A.J. Green                 .05                   x          .13                   x

Mohamad Sanu       .09                  23rd    .34                   27th

2013

A.J. Green                   .07                   35th    .11                    6th

Marvin Jones           .06                  36th    .49                   38th

*The site I use only ranks WPA up to 40 and Green wasn’t close to the .88 WPA needed to crack the list.

In 2012 Green had a decent year going 1.17 WPA and 36.4 EPA. good for 29th and 28th in the league respectively.

This time around 2014 jumps out at me. How on Earth was Sanu more valuable in general and per play than Green!?! It doesn’t make any sense to me. For the most part these stats agree with popular consensus on who the best players are, but this is just silly!  Perhaps a look at Football Outsiders stats can give us a different opinion.

The stats Football Outsiders use for WRs  (or any football player) are Defensive adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) and Defensive adjusted Value Over Replacement (DVOA). These stats try to determine value by different measures than Advance Football Analytics, you can read about  more here ).

2014                            DYAR            Rank                DVOA             Rank

A.J. Green                    155                 29                    3.8%                38

Mohammad Sanu        99                 41                    0.0%                43

2013                            DYAR            Rank                DVOA             Rank

A.J. Green                    207                  20                    1.9%                41

Marvin Jones              279                   11                    32.4%               3

2012                            DYAR            Rank                 DVOA             Rank

A.J. Green                   215                  22                    4.1%                33

Andrew Hawkins        21                   70                   -9.2%               70

A lot of this confirms what we already know, A.J. Green is not as good as his raw stats suggest. While Football Outsiders has Green as the better receiver in 2014 he far less valuable than Jones was in 2013. (This is because he had a ridiculous fluky touchdown rate)

So why is this happening? Why are the stats telling us this? I believe these value based stats are lower than expected because A.J Green lacks the consistency other receivers in his tier supposed tier have. A.J. Green has about four games each season where he hurts the team. And in a lot of these games he’s hurting the team a lot. He has games where he has loads of targets but few receptions and fewer first downs. These types of games can quickly kill a wideouts WPA.

Another thing I noticed is that his first down per target ratio is a bit low compared to other comparable receivers. Perhaps Green stats are a bit bloated with 8 yard receptions on 3rd and 10. But overall A.J. Green is not as valuable on a per snap basis as it would seem.

But where does he rank among other receivers? That’s why I put this list of WRs who have been more valuable over the past 3 years than A.J. Green.

1. Antonio Brown- Top 10 in both EPA and WPA in the last two years. Plus has been Pro Football Focus’ top rated receiver the past two years.

2. Calvin Johnson- Struggled with injuries the last two years but was able to put up an excellent season last year and a good one this year. Oh and almost had 200 receiving yards in 2012.

3. DeMaryius Thomas- Let me be clear about this from the start. DeMaryius Thomas would be a great WR even without Peyton Manning. My evidence for that statement is that he is has been in the top 3 for WRs in YAC. (A stat that Green is particularly low in)  Plus he finished second in EP in both 2012 and 2013.

4. Dez Bryant- I can’t find an advanced stat anywhere that Dez didn’t finish in the top 5 in last year.

5. Jordy Nelson- I know he has Aaron Rodgers, but his productivity is great. He’s consistent, (top 21 in EPA and WPA in the past 3 season) and  has shown greatness. (Led league last year in EPA)

6. Anquan Boldin- First in WPA and EPA in 2013 by a wide margin. In fact Anquan Boldin created 20 more expected points in one season than Green did in his past 3. If you think it’s a fluke  check his 2012 playoff performance, it reminds you how good of a receiver he is. In my opinion the most underrated receiver in the game.

7. Brandon Marshall- Struggled last year, but was great in 2012 and 2013 despite poor quarterbacking.

8. Julio Jones- A.J .Green’s draftmate is a bit better across the board.

9.DeSean Jackson- I used to think DeSean Jackson was just an injury-prone 1 trick pony, but then I learned just how valuable he was. 3rd in EPA in 2013, 2 straight top 12 seasons in WPA, all with sub par quarterbacking.

This is the list of WRs I could find that I’m certain were more valuable than A.J. Green in the past 3 years. They aren’t that surprising except for Boldin and Jackson. In my book Green ranks around 10-12th among receivers in value over the last 3 years, (Probably top 8 in the past 4) around guys like Vincent Jackson, Andre Johnson, (another receiver with inflated numbers), Randall Cobb (Has better stats in a couple of measures, but small sample size and having a great QB in Aaron Rodgers prevent him from being in the top 10).

 

 

 

 

 

Brock Lesnar and the WWE get publicity off ESPN

Another post I put on the Maxwell media Project. More stuff will be coming to PSF soon.

Maxwell Media Watch

By Paul Duncan

March 29, 2015

WWE superstar Brock Lesnar’s contract was going to end this Monday and rumors were swirling around that Lesnar would make his long awaited return to UFC. On Tuesday Lesnar appeared on SportsCenter to make his surprise announcement.

In an interview with noted WWE fan Michelle Beadle, Brock Lesnar declared that “my legacy, this Sunday at WrestleMania, (the Super Bowl of the WWE world) will not be my last.” He then went on to to explain the decision and even cut a brief promo about his title match with Roman Reigns. He then does an interview with ESPN anchor and former WWE commentator Jonathan Coachman and says that he loves wrestling for WWE.

What was even more interesting that they put this live segment over coverage of the Sweet 16 or of baseball starting soon. It is just really strange that they would put a…

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Free Agent Frenzy

A quick post I put on the Maxwell project on free agency and the media.

Maxwell Media Watch

By Paul Duncan

March 16, 2015

NFL free agency has gotten off to one of the fastest starts in history. Moves have been happening by the hour and it has been hard to keep up with. Thankfully there is Twitter and the race between reporters to get it first and get it right.

On March 10th we had a quarterback swap, a 26 QB retire, Jimmy Graham got traded, and Darrelle Revis went back to the Jets. Some of these events were rumored and others came out of the blue but most of this news was broken on twitter. The one man at the center of all of this is ESPN’s Adam Schefter who has the following and the skills to be considered the king of breaking NFL news.

Many people don’t even consider a rumor to be true until Schefter reports this. But in looking at his tweets he just…

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